Most years tend to be fairly predictable but we have a rare, exciting instance in 2013 where a lot of categories are wide open.  I’m usually hoping there’ll be surprises but this year, I’m quite confident that there will be surprises.

My 13th Annual Oscars Contest!

As I have done for the last 12 years, I am conducting my annual "pick the Oscars" competition. I have selected 6 of the more wide-open categories (it's such a tricky year) and everyone is invited to pick who they think will be the winner.

In the event of a tie, the winner will be determined using my traditional tie-breaker question. You just have to guess the age of the person who presents the award for best picture. If two or more people present, an average age will be used.

The first and only prize is a $100 Amazon voucher. Hopefully you'll be able to use it wisely and buy some great DVDs. Further, I'll invite you and a friend along to the film preview of choice (if you live in Brisbane).

The awards are held at 11am on Monday, February 25 (Brisbane time) and entries close at this time. You can only enter once so think it over and choose carefully.

The entry form is online and you can check it out by clicking here.

Oscar Betting

As I also do each year, I like to put a small/large wager on the Academy Awards.  I’m not normally a big gambler but this is the one time of the year where I have fun and try to hope my predicting skills are better than others.  I steer away from favourites and tend to look for a bit of value.

Unfortunately, I think I wagered many of my bets too early this year.  I was confident at the time but the lead up awards have all gone against me.  Fingers are crossed but I suspect my $600 will be going down the drain.  For those keen to follow, here are my bets…

Best Picture – Les Miserables - $100 at $5.00
Best Picture – Zero Dark Thirty - $100 at $7.00
Best Picture – Life Of Pi - $50 at $13.00
Best Picture – Silver Linings Playbook - $50 at $21.00
Best Actress – Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty) - $200 at $3.00
Best Director – Ang Lee - $50 at $5.00
Best Supporting Actor – Robert DeNiro - $50 at $11.00

Super Mega Awesome Oscars Form Guide

On that note, let’s get to the form guide.  Here’s a look at all the categories with my thoughts on who will take home the coveted gold statues.  Well, only the plating is actual gold.  The rest is mostly tin.  Enough about that.

Best Motion Picture of the Year
Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wildld
Django Unchained
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

What an odd race this has turned out to be.  Argo, written off by many early on, has stormed into $1.14 favouritism by winning the Golden Globe, the Screen Actors Guild ensemble, the Director’s Guild Award, the Producer’s Guild Award and the British Academy Award.  It’s a clean sweep of the big five!  BUT… and this a big BUT… the film was surprisingly overlooked in Oscar’s best director category.  Poor Ben Affleck hasn’t been nominated.  This strange oversight confuses me since the film that wins best picture also wins best director.  You have to go back to 2006 (when Crash won best picture and Brokeback Mountain won best director) to find a year where the two didn’t line up.  You have to go back to 1990 to find a year when a film won best picture (Driving Miss Daisy) whilst not even receiving a best director nomination.  It’s hard to bet against Argo though given that not one of the other 8 nominees has been able to beat it in a major lead up award.  Lincoln could surprise but I’m not confident.  Matt’s Pick: Argo.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Bradley Cooper for Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln
Hugh Jackman for Les Misérables
Joaquin Phoenix for The Master
Denzel Washington for Flight

Daniel Day-Lewis has this won.  They’ve already engraved the statue.  He’s already written his acceptance speech.  He’ll make history in the process – becoming the first man to ever win 3 Oscars for best actor.  He previously won for My Left Foot and There Will Be Blood.  A standing ovation is likely.  Matt’s Pick: Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Jessica Chastain for Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva for Amour
Quvenzhané Wallis for Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts for The Impossible

It’s not often that a young actress wins in this category but frontrunner Jennifer Lawrence is trying to buck history and become the second youngest winner (behind Marlee Matlin in 1987).  She’s been working the talk-show circuit hard and her lead up wins at the Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild Awards suggests she’s doing everything right.  I always thought Jessica Chastain was her most likely challenger (given her strong, dominant performance in Zero Dark Thirty) but it seems unknown French actress Emmanuelle Riva is now the dark horse.  Riva won the British Academy Award last week and at the age of 85 is the oldest acting nominee in Academy history.  Could she translate that into the oldest acting WNNER in Academy history?  She’ll have supporters but I think the star power of Jennifer Lawrence will be too hard to overcome.  Matt’s Pick: Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Alan Arkin for Argo
Robert De Niro for Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman for The Master
Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln
Christoph Waltz for Django Unchained

I don’t think I’ve seen a trickier acting category in many years.  It reminds me a little of 1999.  There was no clear standout and James Coburn surprisingly took the award for his performance in Affliction.  We’ve already made history here as it’s the first time we’ve seen 5 acting nominees in the same category who have already won before.  Christoph Waltz won the Golden Globe and British Academy Award which has him as the favourite… but the lack of a Screen Actors Guild Award nomination muddies the waters.  Since the SAGs began in 1995, we’ve only had one instance where an Oscar was won by a person not nominated for a SAG (Marcia Gay Harden in 2001).  That’s a strike rate of 1 in 72 and certainly doesn’t help Waltz’s chances.  It was Tommy Lee Jones who took the SAG Award and my head suggests he’s the best chance… but since I think this category is ripe for an upset, I’m going to stick my neck out and go with Robert DeNiro.  Matt’s Pick: Robert De Niro for Silver Linings Playbook.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams for The Master
Sally Field for Lincoln
Anne Hathaway for Les Misérables
Helen Hunt for The Sessions
Jacki Weaver for Silver Linings Playbook

As last year’s winner for best supporting actor, Christopher Plummer will step to the stage.  He will open the envelope.  He will read the name of Anne Hathaway.  She will walk to stage with a little moisture in her eyes.  She will speak for much longer than the allowed 45 seconds on the basis that she’s a big star and people will want to hear her emotive, heartfelt acceptance speech.  If you think she’s not going to win, place a bet.  You can pretty much write your own ticket given Hathaway is a $1.01 favourite right now.  Matt’s Pick: Anne Hathaway for Les Misérables.

Best Achievement in Directing
Michael Haneke for Amour
Ang Lee for Life of Pi
David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg for Lincoln
Benh Zeitlin for Beasts of the Southern Wild

Here we have another interesting category. With Argo the favourite for best picture, Ben Affleck would start as a $1.10 favourite in this category… if he was nominated.  Anything could happen but I see it as a battle between two former winners – Steven Spielberg (Lincoln) and Ang Lee (Life Of Pi).  These two films received the most nominations this year and given that broad support within the Academy, it’d be hard to see one of the other 3 challengers upsetting them.  It’s a coin flip for me but since Life Of Pi is my favourite of this season’s award contenders, my money is on Mr Lee.  Matt’s Pick: Ang Lee for Life of Pi.

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen
Amour
Django Unchained
Flight
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty

Given Quentin Tarantino’s wonderful dialogue in Django Unchained, it’d be a big upset to see him lose in this category.  He won 18 years ago for his screenplay of Pulp Fiction (along with Roger Avery who was later jailed for gross vehicular manslaughter) and it’s time for the Academy to honour him again.  Matt’s Pick: Django Unchained.

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook

All five of these films have been nominated for best picture which makes it tougher to drop off the non-contenders.  Given the late wave of support for Argo, I think it’ll get the nod over Lincoln, Life Of Pi and Silver Linings Playbook.  Matt’s Pick: Argo.

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year
Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
The Pirates! Band of Misfits
Wreck-It Ralph

This category is often a foregone conclusion.  There’s usually one animated film that stands out in terms of both critical reception and box-office takings.  Not so this year.  Wreck-It-Ralph won the often controversial Annie Award whereas it was Brave who won the Golden Globe and the British Academy Award.  A tough race… but I’m going to lean towards Brave because that’s the way the wind seems to be blowing.  Matt’s Pick: Brave.

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
Amour (Austria)
War Witch (Canada)
No (Chile)
A Royal Affair (Denmark)
Kon-Tiki (Norway)

This is a category where upsets are frequent due to the fact that only Academy members who have seen all 5 films at special screenings are eligible to vote.  It narrows the pool of votes and if there’s a particular favourite within a small section of Academy, it can sneak home and produce an unlikely winner.  It’s hard to see that happening this year given that Amour has been so dominant in the lead up awards and also has the honour of being nominated for best picture.  Acclaimed director Michael Haneke will now have an Oscar statute to sit alongside his two Palm D’ors from the Cannes Film Festival.  Matt’s Pick: Amour (Austria).

Best Achievement in Cinematography
Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall

Roger Deakins is a brilliant cinematographer who has been honoured 3 times by his peers at the American Society of Cinematographers Awards – for The Shawshank Redemption, The Man Who Wasn’t There and Skyfall.  Unfortunately, that success has never translated into an Oscar.  He’s been nominated 9 times previously and never won.  This year is his 10th crack and it’d be great to see him recognised for Skyfall.  He’s going to face some competition though.  Life of Pi was equally stunning which brings Claudio Miranda into the mix.  My head says that Pi will probably take this but my heart wants Deakins and so he’s my pick.  Matt’s Pick: Skyfall.

Best Achievement in Editing
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

It’s a shame that Zero Dark Thirty hasn’t performed better this awards season (it’s my second favourite of the contenders behind Life Of Pi).  Of its 5 nominations, this is the category where it has been touted as having the best chance.  We often see the best picture winner taking out this category (which suggests Argo) but in a wide open year with awards likely to be shared around, I think Zero Dark Thirty might pull it off.  Matt’s Pick: Zero Dark Thirty.

Best Achievement in Costume Design
Anna Karenina
Les Misérables
Lincoln
Mirror Mirror
Snow White and the Huntsman

With a few exceptions, this category has a history of honouring the costumes of lavish, colourful period pieces.  Anna Karenina is a warm favourite (ticking all the right boxes) but those looking for an upset could lean towards Mirror Mirror.  Costume designer Eiko Ishioka passed away last year and those who knew her great work may choose to honour her for one final time.  Matt’s Pick: Anna Karenina.

Best Achievement in Production Design
Anna Karenina
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln

A tricky one here.  Like the costume design category, period piece / fantasy movies tends to be favoured.  My instinct says it’s a two horse race between the creative Anna Karenina and the epic Les Misérables.  Matt’s Pick: Anna Karenina.

Best Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling
Hitchcock
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Misérables

This used to be a category for best makeup but for the first time this year, has been expanded to include hairstyling.  It’s also the only category this year where there are fewer than 5 nominees (only 3).  It’s a shame not to see more recognised in this field.  As the only best picture nominee of the bunch, it’d be a surprise to see Les Misérables getting beaten.  Matt’s Pick: Les Misérables.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score
Anna Karenina
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall

As a lover of great movie music, this is always a category of interest to me.  Thomas Newman is one of my favourite composers and he’s up again this year for Skyfall.  Could he win for the first time in 11 attempts?  He won the British Academy Award so he’s not without some chance.  Perhaps the Academy will honour the gifted John Williams (Lincoln) once again?  He has 48 nominations in total – the second largest of any person in Academy history.  Will he win his 6th Oscar?  Mychael Danna (Life Of Pi) won the Golden Globe Award and I’ve long been a fan of his work since he composed The Ice Storm back in 1997.  Could he win at his first trip to the Academy Awards?  It’s an open race.  Matt’s Pick: Life of Pi.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song
"Before My Time" from Chasing Ice
"Suddenly" from Les Misérables
"Pi's Lullaby" from Life of Pi
"Skyfall" from Skyfall
"Everybody Needs a Best Friend" from Ted

There have been previous nominations but no James Bond film has ever won in this category.  That’s about to change.  Adele has already won 9 Grammy Awards and the time has come to add an Academy Award to her mantelpiece.  Matt’s Pick: "Skyfall" from Skyfall.

Best Achievement in Sound Mixing
Argo
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall

My general rule with both sound categories is to find a loud, action-picked film.  I’m no expert when it comes to sound mixing/editing and I suspect most Academy members are the same.  That said, Les Misérables will have its supporters this year with the way in which director Tom Hooper used live singing as composed to a comfortable, sound proof studio.  Another tough category to predict.  Matt’s Pick: Skyfall.

Best Achievement in Sound Editing
Argo
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty

I’m going to lean towards Skyfall here again (I like to pair my sound categories) but Zero Dark Thirty has a good shot.  Matt’s Pick: Skyfall.

Best Achievement in Visual Effects
The Avengers
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
Prometheus
Snow White and the Huntsman

How could Life Of Pi not win this?  It’s special effects were stunning and it’s the only one of the 9 best picture nominees to feature in this category.  Matt’s Pick: Life Of Pi.

Best Documentary, Feature
5 Broken Cameras
The Gatekeepers
How to Survive a Plague
The Invisible War
Searching for Sugar Man

I’m proud to say that I saw Searching For Sugar Man last August at the Melbourne Film Festival and I’ve been talking it up ever since.  It made my top 10 list for 2012 and it’s been sweeping through all the major lead up awards.  I’d love to see it win.  Matt’s Pick: Searching for Sugar Man.

Best Documentary, Short Subject
Inocente
Kings Point
Mondays at Racine
Open Heart
Redemption

Your guess is as good as mine.  I’ve seen none of these films and it’s unlikely that I’ll ever get the chance to.  I’ll therefore go with the most interesting title  Matt’s Pick: Mondays at Racine.

Best Short Film, Animated
Adam and Dog
Fresh Guacamole
Head Over Heels
Paperman
The Simpsons: The Longest Daycare

Usually this category would also feature 5 short films that no one has ever seen.  It’s different this year.  Paperman screened before Wreck-It-Ralph when released.  The same applied to The Simpsons: The Longest Daycare which screened before Ice Age 4.  I haven’t seen the other 3 nominees.  As much as I’d love to see The Simpsons win an Oscar, the beautifully made Paperman gets my vote.  Matt’s Pick: Paperman.

Best Short Film, Live Action
Asad
Buzkashi Boys
Curfew
Dood van een Schaduw
Henry

No idea.  Matt’s Pick: Curfew.


The Oscars will be held on Monday, 25 February 2013 at 11am Brisbane time.  Don’t forget to enter my contest!