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Oscars 2012: I'm No Artist When It Comes To Tipping
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- Written by Matthew Toomey
I’ll be honest. I’ve been better. Meryl Streep is a wonderful actress but I was pretty confident that Viola Davis was going to take home that best actress Oscar. Davis had won the SAG Award (the biggest lead up) and she’d been backed into a $1.70 favourite. The $4.50 odds that I’d secured looked very tasty. A possible $900 return finished up being a $200 loss. I could have really used another ivory back scratcher. Ah well. That’s life.
Oscar Betting
I picked up a $200 win on Jean Dujardin for best actor but that was negated by my $200 loss on Brad Pitt (who I backed early in the Oscar season) in the same category. I also lost $40 on Hugo (praying for an upset) in the best picture category. Coupled with the Davis loss and my Golden Globe loss, that put me down $640 for the awards season. My career profit is still $3,093 but it’s a number that’s definitely on the slide…
1996 – profit of $750 – won on Susan Saranadon
1997 – profit of $300 (cumulative profit $1,050) – won on Frances McDormand
1998 – loss of $250 (cumulative profit $800)
1999 – loss of $250 (cumulative profit $550)
2000 – profit of $620 (cumulative profit $1,170) – won on Kevin Spacey and Michael Caine
2001 – loss of $190 (cumulative profit $980) – won on director Steven Soderbergh
2002 – profit of $480 (cumulative profit $1,460) – won on Halle Berry
2003 – profit of $275 (cumulative profit $1,735) – won on Catherine Zeta-Jones and Adrian Brody
2004 – profit of $150 (cumulative profit $1,875) – won on Sean Penn
2005 – profit of $214 (cumulative profit $2,089) – won on Hilary Swank
2006 – profit of $350 (cumulative profit $2,439) – won on Reese Witherspoon
2007 – profit of $1,463 (cumulative profit $3,912) – won on Eddie Murphy at Globes, Alan Arkin & West Bank Story at Oscars
2008 – profit of $268 (cumulative profit of $4,280) – won on Tilda Swinton and the Coen brothers
2009 – profit of $253 (cumulative profit of $4,533) – won on Mickey Rourke & Kate Winslet at Globes, Kate Winslet at Oscars
2010 – loss of $830 (cumulative profit of $3,703)
2011 – profit of $30 (cumulative profit of $3,733) – won on Social Network at Globes, Tom Hooper & King’s Speech at Oscars
2011 – loss of $640 (cumulative profit of $3,093) – won on Jean Dujardin at Oscars
Oscars Competition
A big thanks to everyone who entered my 12th annual Film Pie Pick The Oscars competition. I received 76 entries in total. No one managed the perfect 6 out of 6.
Those who scored 4 out of 6 and earn honourable mentions are – Solo Fogg, Kristen King, Rob Eddy, Sam Dagan, Tim Case, Sam McCosh, Brett Hansen, Glen Hewson, Nick Dagan, Glenn Dunks, Mitch Lewis, Kent Stone, Clare Murray, Brian Bedard, Peter Johns, Jason Reed, Marcus Thomson, Andrew Buckle, Tracey Denman, Paul Anthony Nelson, Shane Israel, Stephanie, Lisa Malouf, Karis Bouher and Daniel Zuccon.
There were just 3 people who pulled off 5 out of 6 – Nigel Middlebrook, Sarah Ward and Trish Buckley.
It came down to the tie-breaker question – the age of the best picture presenter. Tom Cruise is 49 years of age (he turns 50 later this year) and closest to the mark were Sarah Ward and Trish Buckley who each tipped 63. A special mention to David Edwards who was the only entrant to get the age spot on.
Therefore, for the first time in my competition’s history, we have a tie. Both Sarah Ward and Trish Buckley share the spoils. I’ll therefore give them each a $50 Amazon voucher which they’ll hopefully spend wisely. Congratulations!
Oscars Ceremony
As for my thoughts on the ceremony, there were positives and negatives (as you’d expect).
The positives included:
The wonderful Emma Stone who worked with Ben Stiller to present a couple of awards. She is a natural. Perhaps her chance to stand on stage with an actual Oscar statuette will be sooner rather than later.
Will Ferrell and Zach Galifianakas presenting the best song award was also a highlight. A great entrance and I had to laugh at them dropping everything while trying to announce the winner.
The tributes to cinema. Leading in/out of the ad breaks, it was nice to see actors talking about their favourite movie memories.
The streamlined show. It was all finished inside of 3 hours and there wasn’t a lot of “fat” to trim. Thankfully the days of a 4 hour ceremony are long behind us.
Sacha Baron Cohen spilling the ashes of Kim Jong Il over E! host Ryan Seacrest during the red carpet stuff. Stay classy Oscars!
Richard Wilkins looking extremely uncomfortable in a bizarre red carpet interview with Sean “P. Diddy” Combs.
The negatives included:
Billy Crystal. He made me laugh a few times but for the most part, I wasn’t that impressed. His opening montage missed the mark completely. It’s back to the drawing board.
The introductions from most presenters. Aside from the above mentioned Stone, Stiller, Ferrell and Galifianakas, the introductions were weak. The one from Gwyneth Paltrow and
Robert Downey Jr was particularly unfunny.
Some of the dated material such as the “reading their mind” segment and the opening musical numbers. Fresh ideas are needed for next year.
Oscar Winners
I do enjoy an Oscars surprise but there aren’t a lot of them these days. The biggest this year would be the win of 16-1 shots Angus Wall and Aussie Kirk Baxter in the best editing category for The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo. This award usually goes to the film that wins best picture. Not so this year! Dragon Tattoo wasn’t even nominated for best film. Wow.
Other mini-surprises included the win of Meryl Streep for The Iron Lady (sigh) and the visual effects win for Hugo. You could make an argument that some of Hugo’s other wins (e.g. costume design, cinematography) also caught a few off guard.
As expected though, The Artist won best picture. I saw it back at the Toronto Film Festival last September and immediately saw its Oscar potential. It wasn’t my favourite film but it’s now in the history books as the Academy’s best of 2011.
Here then are the major winners:
Best Picture – The Artist
Best Director – Michel Hazanavicius (The Arist)
Best Actor – Jean Dujardin (The Artist)
Best Actress – Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)
Best Supporting Actor – Christopher Plummer (Beginners)
Best Supporting Actress – Octavia Spencer (The Help)
Best Original Screenplay – Midnight In Paris
Best Adapted Screenplay – The Descendants
Best Foreign Language Film – A Separation
Best Animated Feature Film – Rango
The Artist and Hugo tied with 5 awards each. It was the later film that dominated the technical category. No other film won more than 2 awards.
I picked just 15 of the 24 winners this year. Not great.
Christopher Plummer made history and at the age of 82, became the oldest acting winner ever. Meryl Streep broke her streak of 13 consecutive losses with her win and is now only one Oscar away from Katherine Hepburn’s record (4 in total).
I was particularly pleased with the screenplay Oscars – both going to previous winners who I admire greatly – Alexander Payne (The Descendants) and Woody Allen (Midnight In Paris).
Well that’s it for another awards season. I look forward to doing it again in 12 months time. I’ve got losses to recoup!
Matt's 2012 Oscars Form Guide & Competition
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- Written by Matthew Toomey
The 2012 Oscars are almost here. The ceremony will be held next Monday (Feb 27) at 11am Brisbane time. It’s always been one of my favourite days of the year and I’ll be taking some time off work this year to sit back, relax and enjoy the ceremony.
Billy Crystal has been dusted off and is ready to step in as host (replacing Eddie Murphy who had been previously announced). I didn’t mind Crystal in his prime (this is his 9th hosting of the Oscars) so hopefully he’ll be on his A-game.
Let’s quickly get down to business…
Oscars Competition!
As I have done for the last 11 years, I am conducting my annual "pick the Oscars" competition. I have selected 6 of the more wide-open categories below (well, except for one) and everyone is invited to pick who they think will be the winner.
In the event of a tie, the winner will be determined using the tie-breaker question – you have to guess the age of the person who presents the award for best picture. If two or more people present, an average age will be used.
The first and only prize is a $100 Amazon voucher. Hopefully you'll be able to use it wisely and buy some great DVDs. Further, I'll invite you and a friend along to the film preview of choice.
The competition can be entered via my website. Just click on this link - http://www.thefilmpie.com/index.php?option=com_rsform&formId=9&Itemid=9999.
Oscar Betting!
I’ve been betting on the Oscars since 1996 and this year is no exception. I’m hoping to build on my career profit of $3,733. These are the bets I have placed over the past few weeks:
$160 on Jean Dujardin (The Artist) to win best actor at odds of $2.25.
$200 on Brad Pitt (Moneyball) to win best actor at odds of $7.
$200 on Viola Davis (The Help) to win best actress at odds of $4.50.
$40 on Hugo to win best picture at odds of $15.
Those that know me are familiar with the fact that I stay away from favourites. I’m not a fan of odds-on betting. I backed Dujardin and Davis at juicy odds who have both firmed into favouritism (which pleases me). I think Brad Pitt and Hugo are crazy long shots now but hey, you never know.
If I can get Dujardin and Davis home, it’ll be a profit of $660 which will help me get over my loss of $400 from the Golden Globes.
Oscars Form Guide!
Let me get the main part of this special Oscars blog – my form guide. I draft this up every year to run through my tips and provide an insight into the expected winners. Here we go…
Best Motion Picture of the Year
The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse
It’s kind of sad that this race has already been run and won. The Artist is currently $1.06 on Centrebet to win the award. You can get odds of $11.00 on any other film winning! That’s just ridiculous. The Artist is a very good film but so too are the other nominees. Well, most of them anyway. Of all the major awards, The Artist has a 100% record – the Golden Globe Award, the Screen Actors Guild Award, the Directors Guild Award, the Critics Choice Award and the British Academy Award. Let’s face facts – the folk in Hollywood love this film and it cannot lose next Monday. Matt’s Pick: Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close. Just kidding… make it The Artist.
Best Achievement in Directing
The Artist - Michel Hazanavicius
The Descendants - Alexander Payne
Hugo - Martin Scorsese
Midnight in Paris - Woody Allen
The Tree of Life - Terrence Malick
He who wins best picture, wins best director. It’s a golden rule for an Oscar tipster. You’d be a brave person to try to pick a split. It’s only happened 4 times over the past two decades. The last was in 2006 when Crash won best picture (in a jaw-dropping upset) over Brokeback Mountain (which won best director for Ang Lee). The only danger is Martin Scorese but I’m playing this one safe. Matt’s Pick: Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist).
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Demián Bichir in A Better Life
George Clooney in The Descendants
Jean Dujardin in The Artist
Gary Oldman in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt in Moneyball
In the early stages of this year’s award season, I thought Brad Pitt had a legitimate chance of winning this category. My reasoning was (1) he’s been nominated before and hasn’t won, (2) he’s featured in 2 of this year’s best pictures – Moneyball and The Tree Of Life, (3) he’s one of the world’s most popular actors, and (4) he was a producer on Moneyball. He won some early awards but has come up blank with the big ones. Clooney took a Golden Globe and a Critics Choice Award but the momentum shifted in favour of Jean Dujardin when he won the Screen Actors Guild Award and the British Academy Award. It’s an interesting statistic that the Guild winner has taken the Oscar in every year since 2004. As I said above, people love The Artist and it stands to reason that Dujardin will win here. Matt’s Pick: Jean Dujardin (The Artist).
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Glenn Close in Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis in The Help
Rooney Mara in The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep in The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams in My Week with Marilyn
Of the acting categories, this is the most interesting. Michelle Williams has an outside chance but the two main contenders are Meryl Streep and Viola Davis. Streep, a 2 time winner back in the early 1980s, is trying to break her streak of 13 consecutive losses. Her problem is that she often comes up against actors who have been nominated in “better” films. When I use the term “better”, I’m referring to those nominated for best picture. Her last 4 losses have been against Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side), Kate Winslet (The Reader), Helen Mirren (The Queen) and Catherine Zeta-Jones (Chicago). In those years, the film in which Streep appeared was NOT nominated for best picture. Guess what? We have the same situation in 2012. Streep is nominated for The Iron Lady (which has no chance at a best picture nomination) whilst Viola Davis is nominated for The Help (which has a best picture nomination). Seems like fate if you ask me. I backed Davis at $4.50 early in the campaign and can’t wait to collect. Matt’s Pick: Viola Davis (The Help).
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Kenneth Branagh in My Week with Marilyn
Jonah Hill in Moneyball
Nick Nolte in Warrior
Christopher Plummer in Beginners
Max von Sydow in Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
Heath Ledger was at un-backable odds when he won in his category 3 years ago. We have the same situation this year. On Centrebet, Christopher Plummer is at odds of $1.01. Why? Because he was won every damn thing! I can’t help but think this Oscar has already been engraved. Hopefully they’ll make it the first award of the night to just get it out of the way. There won’t be any surprises here. The other nominees have about as much chance as the Labor Party at the upcoming State election. As a footnote, Plummer will become the oldest actor to ever win an Oscar in the process. Matt’s Pick: Christopher Plummer (Beginners).
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Bérénice Bejo in The Artist
Jessica Chastain in The Help
Melissa McCarthy in Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer in Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer in The Help
Octavia Spencer has this one in the bag too. She’s at odds of $1.03 and hasn’t lost a big award all season. Matt’s Pick: Octavia Spencer (The Help).
Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published
The Descendants
Hugo
The Ides of March
Moneyball
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
You’d have to think The Descendants is the front runner in this category. Alexander Payne is a great screenwriter and he won in this category for his last film – Sideways. He then took a 7 year break from feature films and is on the verge of returning to pick up a second Oscar. Hugo and Moneyball have outside chances of spoiling but I don’t think it’ll happen. Matt’s Pick: The Descendants.
Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Margin Call
Midnight in Paris
A Separation
Let’s just say that I’ll be disappointed if The Artist wins here. Yes, it won the British Academy Award and I admit it’s a nice story but I would like to think that a film with dialogue (a big part in any screenplay) would have more worthy claims. Midnight In Paris is Woody Allen’s highest grossing film in history (yes, I know that’s not adjusted for inflation). Allen already has 3 Oscars but hasn’t had a win since 1987 (Hannah And Her Sisters). I think he’ll take this out… and since he never shows up a the ceremony, someone will have to accept the award on his behalf. Matt’s Pick: Midnight In Paris.
Best Achievement in Editing
The Artist
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
The film that wins best picture often takes this category too. I often wonder if it’s because the non-editing members of the Academy can’t quite appreciate this category and therefore vote for their favourite film. Probably. In that case, let me tick the box for The Artist. Matt’s Pick: The Artist.
Best Achievement in Cinematography
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
The Tree of Life
War Horse
I love the cinematography category as it’s often one of the hardest to pick. Inception took it out last year, must to the surprise of many tipsters. This year’s race is very interesting. The Artist will win many awards… but will it win this one? Will they acknowledge a black & white film over more “picturesque” films such as Hugo and The Tree Of Life. As bored as I was by The Tree Of Life, you can’t help but applaud it’s amazing visuals. I think it might sneak a win here but I wouldn’t be surprised if Hugo or The Artist are in the envelope. Matt’s Pick: The Tree Of Life.
Best Achievement in Art Direction
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
War Horse
Now this is a tricky one. I can confidently narrow it down to The Artist and Hugo. I don’t think the others have a chance. Hugo has a chance because it has a beautiful art direction. The Artist has a chance because it’s The Artist. Matt’s Pick: Hugo.
Best Achievement in Costume Design
Anonymous
The Artist
Hugo
Jane Eyre
W.E.
Someone made an interesting observation that the last 5 winners in this category have had a queen – Marie Antoinette, Elizabeth: The Golden Age, The Duchess, The Young Victoria and Alice In Wonderland. Of the above, only Anonymous could continue that streak. It’s hard to tip however given it’s up against the power of The Artist and Hugo. Let’s take the chance anyway. Matt’s Pick: Anonymous.
Best Achievement in Makeup
Albert Nobbs
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
The Iron Lady
There are traditionally only 3 nominees in this category which makes it easier to pick. I’m not all that confident here but I’ll lean towards The Iron Lady. Matt’s Pick: The Iron Lady.
Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score
The Adventures of Tintin
The Artist
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse
Music is one of my favourite components of any film and I have quite a large soundtrack collection. I’ve been playing one track each week on my new Sunday shows on ABC Digital with Phil Smith. As The Artist contains nothing else but music, it’s home and hosed. Matt’s Pick: The Artist..
Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song
Man or Muppet from The Muppets
Real in Rio from Rio
There’s been a lot of public outcry this year that the songs won’t be performed during the ceremony (as often tends to occur). Also odd is the fact that there are just 2 nominees this year. It’s a 50/50 choice and I think The Muppets have the power to get over the line. Matt’s Pick: The Muppets.
Best Achievement in Sound Mixing
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
Thank god The Artist was not nominated in this category. It earned a nomination at the British Academy Awards for reasons that I cannot fathom (as it has no sound except music). Will the Academy honour an action film like Transformers? Or will they simply stick with one of the best picture nominees, ignorant of the talent of each sound artist? Matt’s Pick: Hugo.
Best Achievement in Sound Editing
Drive
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
What’s the difference between sound editing and sound mixing? I’m sure one of the presenters will try to explain it to us during the ceremony using an array of positive adjectives. Given the strong overlap between this and the previous category, I think you have to pick the same film in each. Matt’s Pick: Hugo.
Best Achievement in Visual Effects
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Hugo
Real Steel
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
As much as I thought the film was overrated, I was impressed with the visual effects in Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes and the way the apes were brought to life. There was a strong push to get Andy Serkis nominated for best supporting actor (who played one of the apes using CGI). That bid failed but I think the Academy will honour the movie’s great motion capture work in this category. Matt’s Pick: Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes.
Best Animated Feature Film of the Year
A Cat in Paris
Chico & Rita
Kung Fu Panda 2
Puss in Boots
Rango
Rango was the big winners at the Annie Awards – winning best picture, writing, editing and character design. It lost best director however to which director Gore Verbinski proclaimed “The Freemasons have nothing on you f***ers.” I think he’ll get the trophy this time however in what has been a weak year for animation. Matt’s Pick: Rango.
Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
Bullhead - Belgium
Footnote - Israel
In Darkness - Poland
Monsieur Lazhar - Canada
A Separation - Iran
This is always a category to be wary of. There’s often a short-priced favourite but since only a small percentage of Academy members are allowed to vote (if they attend special screenings) you can get an upset if there’s a particular group who really like a particular film. A Separation has won most of the lead up awards however and so I must give it my selection. Matt’s Pick: A Separation.
Best Documentary, Features
Hell and Back Again
If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Pina
Undefeated
I haven’t seen any of this year’s documentaries which makes it hard to pick the winner. For these final four categories, I often think you’re best to choose the winner out of a hat. Matt’s Pick: If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front.
Best Documentary, Short Subjects
The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement
God Is the Bigger Elvis
Incident in New Baghdad
Saving Face
The Tsunami And The Cherry Blossom
I must say that I’m impressed with all of these film titles. They are much better than films like “This Is War” and “One For The Money”. On that note, I will pick my favourite title of the bunch. Matt’s Pick: God Is the Bigger Elvis.
Best Short Film, Animated
Dimanche/Sunday
The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
La Luna
A Morning Stroll
Wild Life
Um, yeah, sure, why not. Matt’s Pick: La Luna.
Best Short Film, Live Action
Pentecost
Raju
The Shore
Time Freak
Tuba Atlantic
Eeny meany miney moe, catch a tiger by his toe, if he hollers let him go, eeny meeny miney MOE. Matt’s Pick: Time Freak.
Don’t forget to enter my Oscars competition and I look forward to talking about all the winners in next week’s blog!
Drawn To Screen: A Great Program At GOMA
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- Written by Matthew Toomey
It’s been underway since the start of December but I keep forgetting to blog about the Drawn To Screen program which is currently on at the Gallery Of Modern Art in Brisbane.
For those who haven’t been there before, the Gallery has a nice theatre which is often used to show classic / cult movies. I remember going there a few years ago to see one of my all time favourite films, The Ice Storm, as part of an Ang Lee retrospective.
The current “Drawn To Screen” program features “over 60 films from around the world that chart the shift from printed page to screen and the way comic genres and themes challenge personal and cultural expectations.”
If that sounded a little too wordy, let me say this – there are some f***king good films being shown. I’ve only given out four A+ gradings since 2007 and one of them screened a week ago – Persepolis. I went along to see it for a second time and it was as wonderful as I remembered it. Has a finer animated film been made? I’m not sure.
Tickets to all films are just $9 and you can pick up a 5-film pass for $36. You won’t get fleeced with candy bar prices either (very refreshing).
The program continues for another month and so I thought I’d quickly mention some of those I’m more familiar with. If you haven’t seen any of these, here’s a great chance to do so on the big screen. I’ve included the quick plot overviews from the IMDB…
V For Vendetta (2006) – Saturday, 11 February at 3:30pm
A shadowy freedom fighter known only as "V" uses terrorist tactics to fight against his totalitarian society.
Weird Science (1985) – Sunday, 12 February at 1:00pm
Two nerdish boys attempt to create the perfect woman, but she turns out to be more than that.
X-Men 2 (2003) – Wednesday, 15 February at 8:15pm
The X-Men band together to find a mutant assassin who has made an attempt on the President's life, while the Mutant Academy is attacked by military forces.
Akira (1988) – Friday, 17 February at 8:30pm
A secret military project endangers Neo-Tokyo when it turns a biker gang member into a rampaging psionic psychopath that only two kids and a group of psionics can stop.
Fritz The Cat (1972) – Saturday, 18 February at 8:00pm
A hypocritical swinging college student cat raises hell in a satiric vision of various elements on the 1960's.
Oldboy (2003) – Wednesday, 22 February at 9:00pm
After being kidnapped and imprisoned for 15 years, Oh Dae-Su is released, only to find that he must find his captor in 5 days.
The Dark Knight (2008) – Saturday, 25 February at 9:00pm
Batman, Gordon and Harvey Dent are forced to deal with the chaos unleashed by a terrorist mastermind known only as the Joker, as he drives each of them to their limits.
Crumb (1994) – Saturday, 3 March at 2:00pm
A cinematic portrait of the controversial comic book writer/artist and his traumatized family.
American Splendor (2003) – Saturday, 3 March at 6:00pm
An original mix of fiction and reality illuminates the life of comic book hero everyman Harvey Pekar.
Ghost World (2001) – Saturday, 3 March at 8:00pm
Enid and Rebecca are social outsiders who, after graduating from high school, play a mean prank on a middle-aged geek.
Hopefully I’ll see you in one of the screenings!
Oscar Nominations 2012: It's Hugo Vs. The Artist
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- Written by Matthew Toomey
It’s Christmas time for movie lovers. Tom Sherak, president of the Academy, and last year’s nominee, Jennifer Lawrence, just announced the nominations for the 2012 Academy Awards. It’s an event that always generates a huge amount of buzz.
I can’t quite believe this but I picked the 9 nominations for best picture back on 21 November 2011 in my awards season preview. Here’s a quote from that blog...
“This year’s best picture race has been made murky by a rule change – there will now be between 5 and 10 nominees depending on the support level for the top films. This makes it hard for me to give a set list in my predictions. Assuming there could be up to 10, I thought I’d list out my top predictions in order of likelihood…
1. The Descendants, 2. The Artist, 3. War Horse, 4. The Help, 5. Midnight In Paris, 6. Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, 7. Moneyball, 8. The Tree Of Life, 9. Hugo, 10. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy.”
In turns out the films marked 1 to 9 were the ones nominated. I can take a little bit of credit but it does highlight the predictable nature of the awards season race.
It’s Hugo who leads the charge with 11 nominations in total. The Artist is nipping at its heels with 10 nominations. They’d appear to be the two most popular films amongst Academy voters as the next best are Moneyball and War Horse with 6 nominations each.
Australians nominated this year (from what I can gather) are editor Kirk Baxter for The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo (he won last year for The Social Network), producer Grant Hill for The Tree Of Life and sound mixer Andy Nelson for War Horse. We had 3 acting nominees last year but sadly none in 2012.
Let’s cut to the chase and get into the major categories…
Best Picture
The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse
This year’s best picture nominations were always going to be interesting since we didn’t know how many nominees there would be. It would be between 5 and 10 depending on the number of films to get at least 5% of the first place votes.
We have 9 nominations in all this year. Major films to have missed the cut included Bridesmaids, Drive, The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo, The Ides Of March and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy.
I was certainly surprised by the inclusion of Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close given it’s had a lukewarm reception from critics. The film only earned one other nomination – Max Von Sydow for supporting actor. The film must have a few die-hard fans.
The same can be said of The Tree Of Life that also caught a few off guard with a best picture nomination. It was completely snubbed at the British Academy Awards which were announced last week.
The Artist is the clear frontrunner and it’d be hard to see it losing.
Best Actor
Demián Bichir, A Better Life
George Clooney, The Descendants
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Some great stuff here. Leonardo DiCaprio (J Edgar) and Michael Fassbender (Shame) were the major casualties. Taking their spots were Gary Oldman (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy) and Demián Bichir (A Better Life). It’s wonderful to see Oldman get his first ever nomination! It’s well overdue and I asked him about awards recognition in my interview last week (see here). Bichir is a Mexican actor who I know most from starring in the television series Weeds. It’s always nice seeing small films recognised and I can’t wait to see A Better Life down the track.
Clooney should win here but don’t count out either Dujardin and Pitt.
Best Actress
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn
Unfortunately for fans of Tilda Swinton, she missed out this year for her chilling performance in We Need To Talk About Kevin. I guess the Academy didn’t like the film. A shame. Also missing out was the wonderful Charlize Theron in Young Adult. The good news is that both have won Oscars before.
So who’s going to win here? It’s a coin flip between Davis and Streep. I hope Davis gets the nod. It’s interesting though that The Help picked up just 4 nominations – 3 acting and 1 for best picture. Many thought it would perform stronger.
Best Supporting Actor
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
This category was ripe for a few surprises and the lack of a nomination for Albert Brooks (Drive) is disappointing. Most thought he’d earn his first nod but I guess the Academy didn’t think too much of Drive. It received just one nomination amongst the categories. I’m thrilled to see Jonah Hill get his first nomination – he’s great in Moneyball. As proof that you’re never too old in Hollywood, two 82 year old actors have been nominated in this category – Christopher Plummer (Beginners) and Max Von Sydow (Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close). It’s the second nomination for them both.
Plummer can’t lose this category as far as I’m concerned.
Best Supporting Actress
Bérénice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer, The Help
It’s great to see the Academy recognising comedy with the nomination of Melissa McCarthy in Bridesmaids. Co-star Kristen Wiig is also nominated in the original screenplay category. It was sad to see Shaileen Woodley (The Descendants) miss a nomination here because her performance was excellent. It’s a tough field though and I guess someone had to miss out.
Spencer looks like she has the goods here but Bejo and Chastain will keep her honest.
Best Director
Michel Hanazavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
With more than 5 nominees now for best picture, this category has become the pseudo “top 5” since director and picture often align. I dare say that only 3 of these guys will be appearing the ceremony however. Allen was last nominated in this category in 1994 (Bullets Over Broadway) and has never once turned up at the ceremony when nominated. The same applies to the reclusive Terrence Malick who scored a somewhat unexpected nomination for The Tree Of Life.
This looks like being a two horse race between legend Martin Scorsese and relative newcomer Michel Hanazavicius. You’d have to lean towards Hanazavicius but I’d hate to be putting money on it.
Best Original Screenplay
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Margin Call
Midnight in Paris
A Separation
I was saddened to see 50/50 miss out in this category given my love for the film at the Toronto Film Festival. I’m very keen to see Margin Call given I work in the financial industry and have a keen interest in the subject matter. A Separation solidifies its reputation as the year’s best foreign language film with a screenplay nomination.
Woody Allen last won an Oscar in 1987 but I think that streak is about to be broken. Midnight In Paris should have enough in its bag to defeat the silence of The Artist.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Descendants
Hugo
The Ides of March
Moneyball
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Another solid crop of films. It’s interesting that only 5 of the 9 best picture nominees earned a screenplay nomination. And here I was thinking the script was the most important quality of a movie?
This is fairly wide open given Alexander Payne (The Descendants) has won here before. Aaron Sorkin (along with co-writers Steve Zaillian and Stan Chervin) will be going for back-to-back wins with Moneyball (following his success last year with The Social Network). I think Moneyball will take this out.
Best Foreign Language Film
Bullhead (Belgium)
Footnote (Israel)
In Darkness (Poland)
Monsieur Lazhar (Canada)
A Separation (Iran)
Upsets are frequent in this category but you’d be a brave person to bet against A Separation.
Best Animated Feature
A Cat In Paris
Chico & Rita
Kung Fu Panda 2
Puss in Boots
Rango
This has to be the strangest of all the categories. Who the f*** are Chico & Rita? What is A Cat In Paris? If only you could have seen my reaction when they announced them as nominees. They got in at the expense of big-budget productions such as Arthur Christmas, Cars 2 and Rio. The big surprise though is the lack of a nomination for The Adventures Of Tin Tin. How did this happen? The film won the Golden Globe and the Producers Guild but doesn’t even get an Oscar nomination? Very strange indeed.
Well that’s it from me. It’s time for bed and then I’ll be up early in the morning to discuss all the nominations on Brisbane’s highest rated breakfast show on 612ABC! Sweet dreams.