I love a good awards season and yes, this year has produced a very good one. The Social Network looked on track for an incredible sweep. It was awarded the best film prize by the critics in Los Angeles, New York, Boston, Chicago, Las Vegas, Florida, Washington DC and Toronto. It then won the Golden Globe and the Critics Choice Award.
I admit to being puzzled. I really enjoyed The Social Network but why wasn’t more love going to other highly regarded films from 2010? I speak of The King’s Speech, Inception, Toy Story 3, Winter’s Bone, True Grit, The Fighter, Black Swan and The Kids Are All Right. These critics organisations seemed to be like “lemmings”. Could they all possibly have the same tastes?
The race started to change last week. The King’s Speech caused a big upset when it took home the Producer’s Guild Award. This is an important prize as since it started in 1989, 14 of the 21 winners went on to take the Oscar for best picture. It’s also significant because it uses the same preferential voting system that the Academy use when deciding best picture. Just because a film gets the most number 1 votes, doesn’t make it a guaranteed winner.
Then came the Academy Award nominations (which I wrote about in last week’s blog). The King’s Speech was out in front with 12 nominations. True Grit was next with 10 and The Social Network picked up 8. I’m not reading too much into the nominations but it does highlight a lot of support for The King’s Speech. This isn’t a film that’s slipping past people.
The most shocking twist in this year’s race came last night when Tom Hooper won the Director’s Guild Award for The King’s Speech. Not many saw this coming because (1) he’s a relatively new director on the block and (2) The Social Network’s David Fincher has won almost every award so far. This is the award I look at most closely because 1948, more than 90% have gone on to win the best director Oscar. The correlation between these two honours is remarkable. The last time it didn’t happen was in 2002 when Rob Marshall (Chicago) won the Guild and Roman Polanski (The Pianist) won the Oscar.
To take it a step further, the film which wins best director at the Oscars often wins best picture. Since 1957, the film which won best director also won best picture 85% of the time. Again, that’s a strong correlation.
The last piece of the puzzle fitted into place earlier today. The King’s Speech took out the Screen Actor’s Guild Award for best ensemble. The awards went as scripted with the 4 favourite actors all getting up – Colin Firth, Natalie Portman, Christian Bale and Melissa Leo.
There are often surprises at the Academy Awards but right now, the momentum is with The King’s Speech. The fact that it’s won the Producer’s Guild Award, the Director’s Guild Award, the Screen Actor’s Guild Award and has received the most nominations is a very strong indicator of its popularity. I’m not saying I agree with the voters (I thought The Social Network was slightly better) but the numbers don’t lie. People love The King’s Speech. We all knew that back in September 2010 when it took the lucrative audience award at the Toronto Film Festival.
Can The Social Network still win? The answer is yes. Would I bet on it? The answer is no.
The shift towards The King’s Speech has certainly caught raised some eyebrows (to say it politely). There were many negative comments posted on the Awards Daily forum. I can best sum up the negativity with this comment from columnist Jeffrey Wells – “Early tomorrow morning the henchmen of Soviet Colonel Dimitri Ilyavich Karger will kick my door in and put me on a train to a Siberian gulag, and I'll go willingly because I know when the jig is up. My spirit is spent. I'm feeling so downhearted I'm wondering if I can even sleep tonight.”
I realise that people tend to get a bit sensitive when it comes to big film awards. I was none too pleased when Crash upset Brokeback Mountain in 2005. Nothing can be done though. The King’s Speech isn’t the best film of 2010 in my eyes (that honour belongs to Inception) but I won’t be unhappy if it wins… because I now have money on it!
Following the win by The King’s Speech at the Director’s Guild Awards, I have pounced and invested some big cash. One particular sports betting agency in Australia failed to update their odds following Hooper’s win yesterday and so I took the opportunity to pounce. My bets are for 2011 are:
$400 on Hailee Steinfeld to win the Oscar for best supporting actress at odds of $4.
$500 on The King’s Speech to win the Oscar for best picture at odds of $2.
$200 on Tom Hooper to win the Oscar for best director at odds of $3.50.
$50 on the Oscar winner for best actress to be wearing a black dress at odds of $6.
$250 on Tom Hooper to win the BAFTA for best director at odds of $3.
Before you ask, I had $50 left in my account which is why I had the bet on Natalie Portman’s (the likely best actress winner) dress. She’s heavily pregnant and I think a black dress will suit. We’ll see.
As you can see above, the odds for The King’s Speech and Tom Hooper are very juicy indeed. Centrebet has wound the film into $1.50 for best picture and Tom Hooper into $2.00 for best director.
I wagered my bet on Steinfeld a week ago and I think she’s still good value (now out to $7 following Melissa Leo’s win today) in a hard to predict category – best supporting actress. Melissa Leo is the deserved frontrunner but I’m still worried that her co-star in The Fighter, Amy Adams, might take votes from her. Given that Steinfeld is the best thing in True Grit and it seems to be well-liked by the Academy (with 10 noms), she’s a decent chance.
Like anything, none of the above bets are sure things. You win some and you lose some. But if you can keep getting good value (which I think I have based on the above odds), then you should be ahead in the long run. My total profit on awards betting since 1996 is $3,733 and hopefully that shows I know what I’m talking about.
All we can do now is sit and wait. The Oscars are held on February 27.