The 2012 Oscars are almost here. The ceremony will be held next Monday (Feb 27) at 11am Brisbane time. It’s always been one of my favourite days of the year and I’ll be taking some time off work this year to sit back, relax and enjoy the ceremony.
Billy Crystal has been dusted off and is ready to step in as host (replacing Eddie Murphy who had been previously announced). I didn’t mind Crystal in his prime (this is his 9th hosting of the Oscars) so hopefully he’ll be on his A-game.
Let’s quickly get down to business…
Oscars Competition!
As I have done for the last 11 years, I am conducting my annual "pick the Oscars" competition. I have selected 6 of the more wide-open categories below (well, except for one) and everyone is invited to pick who they think will be the winner.
In the event of a tie, the winner will be determined using the tie-breaker question – you have to guess the age of the person who presents the award for best picture. If two or more people present, an average age will be used.
The first and only prize is a $100 Amazon voucher. Hopefully you'll be able to use it wisely and buy some great DVDs. Further, I'll invite you and a friend along to the film preview of choice.
The competition can be entered via my website. Just click on this link - http://www.thefilmpie.com/index.php?option=com_rsform&formId=9&Itemid=9999.
Oscar Betting!
I’ve been betting on the Oscars since 1996 and this year is no exception. I’m hoping to build on my career profit of $3,733. These are the bets I have placed over the past few weeks:
$160 on Jean Dujardin (The Artist) to win best actor at odds of $2.25.
$200 on Brad Pitt (Moneyball) to win best actor at odds of $7.
$200 on Viola Davis (The Help) to win best actress at odds of $4.50.
$40 on Hugo to win best picture at odds of $15.
Those that know me are familiar with the fact that I stay away from favourites. I’m not a fan of odds-on betting. I backed Dujardin and Davis at juicy odds who have both firmed into favouritism (which pleases me). I think Brad Pitt and Hugo are crazy long shots now but hey, you never know.
If I can get Dujardin and Davis home, it’ll be a profit of $660 which will help me get over my loss of $400 from the Golden Globes.
Oscars Form Guide!
Let me get the main part of this special Oscars blog – my form guide. I draft this up every year to run through my tips and provide an insight into the expected winners. Here we go…
Best Motion Picture of the Year
The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse
It’s kind of sad that this race has already been run and won. The Artist is currently $1.06 on Centrebet to win the award. You can get odds of $11.00 on any other film winning! That’s just ridiculous. The Artist is a very good film but so too are the other nominees. Well, most of them anyway. Of all the major awards, The Artist has a 100% record – the Golden Globe Award, the Screen Actors Guild Award, the Directors Guild Award, the Critics Choice Award and the British Academy Award. Let’s face facts – the folk in Hollywood love this film and it cannot lose next Monday. Matt’s Pick: Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close. Just kidding… make it The Artist.
Best Achievement in Directing
The Artist - Michel Hazanavicius
The Descendants - Alexander Payne
Hugo - Martin Scorsese
Midnight in Paris - Woody Allen
The Tree of Life - Terrence Malick
He who wins best picture, wins best director. It’s a golden rule for an Oscar tipster. You’d be a brave person to try to pick a split. It’s only happened 4 times over the past two decades. The last was in 2006 when Crash won best picture (in a jaw-dropping upset) over Brokeback Mountain (which won best director for Ang Lee). The only danger is Martin Scorese but I’m playing this one safe. Matt’s Pick: Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist).
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Demián Bichir in A Better Life
George Clooney in The Descendants
Jean Dujardin in The Artist
Gary Oldman in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt in Moneyball
In the early stages of this year’s award season, I thought Brad Pitt had a legitimate chance of winning this category. My reasoning was (1) he’s been nominated before and hasn’t won, (2) he’s featured in 2 of this year’s best pictures – Moneyball and The Tree Of Life, (3) he’s one of the world’s most popular actors, and (4) he was a producer on Moneyball. He won some early awards but has come up blank with the big ones. Clooney took a Golden Globe and a Critics Choice Award but the momentum shifted in favour of Jean Dujardin when he won the Screen Actors Guild Award and the British Academy Award. It’s an interesting statistic that the Guild winner has taken the Oscar in every year since 2004. As I said above, people love The Artist and it stands to reason that Dujardin will win here. Matt’s Pick: Jean Dujardin (The Artist).
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Glenn Close in Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis in The Help
Rooney Mara in The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep in The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams in My Week with Marilyn
Of the acting categories, this is the most interesting. Michelle Williams has an outside chance but the two main contenders are Meryl Streep and Viola Davis. Streep, a 2 time winner back in the early 1980s, is trying to break her streak of 13 consecutive losses. Her problem is that she often comes up against actors who have been nominated in “better” films. When I use the term “better”, I’m referring to those nominated for best picture. Her last 4 losses have been against Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side), Kate Winslet (The Reader), Helen Mirren (The Queen) and Catherine Zeta-Jones (Chicago). In those years, the film in which Streep appeared was NOT nominated for best picture. Guess what? We have the same situation in 2012. Streep is nominated for The Iron Lady (which has no chance at a best picture nomination) whilst Viola Davis is nominated for The Help (which has a best picture nomination). Seems like fate if you ask me. I backed Davis at $4.50 early in the campaign and can’t wait to collect. Matt’s Pick: Viola Davis (The Help).
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Kenneth Branagh in My Week with Marilyn
Jonah Hill in Moneyball
Nick Nolte in Warrior
Christopher Plummer in Beginners
Max von Sydow in Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
Heath Ledger was at un-backable odds when he won in his category 3 years ago. We have the same situation this year. On Centrebet, Christopher Plummer is at odds of $1.01. Why? Because he was won every damn thing! I can’t help but think this Oscar has already been engraved. Hopefully they’ll make it the first award of the night to just get it out of the way. There won’t be any surprises here. The other nominees have about as much chance as the Labor Party at the upcoming State election. As a footnote, Plummer will become the oldest actor to ever win an Oscar in the process. Matt’s Pick: Christopher Plummer (Beginners).
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Bérénice Bejo in The Artist
Jessica Chastain in The Help
Melissa McCarthy in Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer in Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer in The Help
Octavia Spencer has this one in the bag too. She’s at odds of $1.03 and hasn’t lost a big award all season. Matt’s Pick: Octavia Spencer (The Help).
Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published
The Descendants
Hugo
The Ides of March
Moneyball
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
You’d have to think The Descendants is the front runner in this category. Alexander Payne is a great screenwriter and he won in this category for his last film – Sideways. He then took a 7 year break from feature films and is on the verge of returning to pick up a second Oscar. Hugo and Moneyball have outside chances of spoiling but I don’t think it’ll happen. Matt’s Pick: The Descendants.
Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Margin Call
Midnight in Paris
A Separation
Let’s just say that I’ll be disappointed if The Artist wins here. Yes, it won the British Academy Award and I admit it’s a nice story but I would like to think that a film with dialogue (a big part in any screenplay) would have more worthy claims. Midnight In Paris is Woody Allen’s highest grossing film in history (yes, I know that’s not adjusted for inflation). Allen already has 3 Oscars but hasn’t had a win since 1987 (Hannah And Her Sisters). I think he’ll take this out… and since he never shows up a the ceremony, someone will have to accept the award on his behalf. Matt’s Pick: Midnight In Paris.
Best Achievement in Editing
The Artist
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
The film that wins best picture often takes this category too. I often wonder if it’s because the non-editing members of the Academy can’t quite appreciate this category and therefore vote for their favourite film. Probably. In that case, let me tick the box for The Artist. Matt’s Pick: The Artist.
Best Achievement in Cinematography
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
The Tree of Life
War Horse
I love the cinematography category as it’s often one of the hardest to pick. Inception took it out last year, must to the surprise of many tipsters. This year’s race is very interesting. The Artist will win many awards… but will it win this one? Will they acknowledge a black & white film over more “picturesque” films such as Hugo and The Tree Of Life. As bored as I was by The Tree Of Life, you can’t help but applaud it’s amazing visuals. I think it might sneak a win here but I wouldn’t be surprised if Hugo or The Artist are in the envelope. Matt’s Pick: The Tree Of Life.
Best Achievement in Art Direction
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
War Horse
Now this is a tricky one. I can confidently narrow it down to The Artist and Hugo. I don’t think the others have a chance. Hugo has a chance because it has a beautiful art direction. The Artist has a chance because it’s The Artist. Matt’s Pick: Hugo.
Best Achievement in Costume Design
Anonymous
The Artist
Hugo
Jane Eyre
W.E.
Someone made an interesting observation that the last 5 winners in this category have had a queen – Marie Antoinette, Elizabeth: The Golden Age, The Duchess, The Young Victoria and Alice In Wonderland. Of the above, only Anonymous could continue that streak. It’s hard to tip however given it’s up against the power of The Artist and Hugo. Let’s take the chance anyway. Matt’s Pick: Anonymous.
Best Achievement in Makeup
Albert Nobbs
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
The Iron Lady
There are traditionally only 3 nominees in this category which makes it easier to pick. I’m not all that confident here but I’ll lean towards The Iron Lady. Matt’s Pick: The Iron Lady.
Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score
The Adventures of Tintin
The Artist
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse
Music is one of my favourite components of any film and I have quite a large soundtrack collection. I’ve been playing one track each week on my new Sunday shows on ABC Digital with Phil Smith. As The Artist contains nothing else but music, it’s home and hosed. Matt’s Pick: The Artist..
Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song
Man or Muppet from The Muppets
Real in Rio from Rio
There’s been a lot of public outcry this year that the songs won’t be performed during the ceremony (as often tends to occur). Also odd is the fact that there are just 2 nominees this year. It’s a 50/50 choice and I think The Muppets have the power to get over the line. Matt’s Pick: The Muppets.
Best Achievement in Sound Mixing
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
Thank god The Artist was not nominated in this category. It earned a nomination at the British Academy Awards for reasons that I cannot fathom (as it has no sound except music). Will the Academy honour an action film like Transformers? Or will they simply stick with one of the best picture nominees, ignorant of the talent of each sound artist? Matt’s Pick: Hugo.
Best Achievement in Sound Editing
Drive
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
What’s the difference between sound editing and sound mixing? I’m sure one of the presenters will try to explain it to us during the ceremony using an array of positive adjectives. Given the strong overlap between this and the previous category, I think you have to pick the same film in each. Matt’s Pick: Hugo.
Best Achievement in Visual Effects
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Hugo
Real Steel
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
As much as I thought the film was overrated, I was impressed with the visual effects in Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes and the way the apes were brought to life. There was a strong push to get Andy Serkis nominated for best supporting actor (who played one of the apes using CGI). That bid failed but I think the Academy will honour the movie’s great motion capture work in this category. Matt’s Pick: Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes.
Best Animated Feature Film of the Year
A Cat in Paris
Chico & Rita
Kung Fu Panda 2
Puss in Boots
Rango
Rango was the big winners at the Annie Awards – winning best picture, writing, editing and character design. It lost best director however to which director Gore Verbinski proclaimed “The Freemasons have nothing on you f***ers.” I think he’ll get the trophy this time however in what has been a weak year for animation. Matt’s Pick: Rango.
Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
Bullhead - Belgium
Footnote - Israel
In Darkness - Poland
Monsieur Lazhar - Canada
A Separation - Iran
This is always a category to be wary of. There’s often a short-priced favourite but since only a small percentage of Academy members are allowed to vote (if they attend special screenings) you can get an upset if there’s a particular group who really like a particular film. A Separation has won most of the lead up awards however and so I must give it my selection. Matt’s Pick: A Separation.
Best Documentary, Features
Hell and Back Again
If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Pina
Undefeated
I haven’t seen any of this year’s documentaries which makes it hard to pick the winner. For these final four categories, I often think you’re best to choose the winner out of a hat. Matt’s Pick: If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front.
Best Documentary, Short Subjects
The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement
God Is the Bigger Elvis
Incident in New Baghdad
Saving Face
The Tsunami And The Cherry Blossom
I must say that I’m impressed with all of these film titles. They are much better than films like “This Is War” and “One For The Money”. On that note, I will pick my favourite title of the bunch. Matt’s Pick: God Is the Bigger Elvis.
Best Short Film, Animated
Dimanche/Sunday
The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
La Luna
A Morning Stroll
Wild Life
Um, yeah, sure, why not. Matt’s Pick: La Luna.
Best Short Film, Live Action
Pentecost
Raju
The Shore
Time Freak
Tuba Atlantic
Eeny meany miney moe, catch a tiger by his toe, if he hollers let him go, eeny meeny miney MOE. Matt’s Pick: Time Freak.
Don’t forget to enter my Oscars competition and I look forward to talking about all the winners in next week’s blog!